Elasticity estimation and forecasting: An analysis of residential electricity demand in Brazil

Joilson de Assis Cabral, Maria Viviana de Freitas Cabral and Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior

Utilities Policy, 2020, vol. 66, issue C

Abstract: Spatiotemporal models to estimate electricity demand are scarce in the existing literature. In this paper, we compare three models to estimate elasticities and forecast demand for residential electricity in Brazil. The Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model presented the best goodness of fit, with results that confirm the need to consider spatial dependence in the Brazilian regions. The results showed temporal inertia, inelasticity of demand concerning price and income, and a significant impact of the temperature and the number of households connected to the grid. We conclude that omitting the spatiotemporal dynamic could lead to bias in the models used by Brazilian utilities.

Keywords: Spatiotemporal models; Brazilian residential electricity demand; Elasticities and forecasting performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178720301028
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:juipol:v:66:y:2020:i:c:s0957178720301028

DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2020.101108

Access Statistics for this article

Utilities Policy is currently edited by Beecher, Janice

More articles in Utilities Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().