Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive

R. Prem Kumar, P.K. Santra and G.S. Mahapatra

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2023, vol. 203, issue C, 741-766

Abstract: The study explores the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic in multiple susceptible populations, including the various stages of vaccination administration. In the model, there are eight human compartments: completely susceptible; susceptible with dose-1 vaccination; susceptible with dose-2 vaccination; susceptible with booster dose vaccination; exposed; infected with and without symptoms, and recovered compartments. The biological feasibility of the model is analysed. The threshold value, R0, is derived using the next-generation matrix. The stability analysis of the equilibrium points was performed locally and globally using the threshold parameter of the model. The conditions determining disease persistence is obtained. The model is subjected to sensitivity analysis, and the most sensitive parameters are identified. Also, MATLAB is used to verify the mathematical outcomes of the system’s dynamic behaviour and suggests that necessary steps should be taken to keep the spread of the omicron variant infectious disease under control. The findings of this study could aid health officials in their efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: Boundedness; Basic reproduction number; Stability; Sensitivity; Vaccination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:203:y:2023:i:c:p:741-766

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.07.012

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