Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19

Manoj Atolia (), Chris Papageorgiou () and Stephen J Turnovsky

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2021, vol. 93, issue C

Abstract: Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.

Keywords: Pandemic; Containment policies; Productivity; Inequality; Path dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:mateco:v:93:y:2021:i:c:s0304406821000197

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102481

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