News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact

Alexander M. Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller and Raphael Schoenle

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, vol. 129, issue S, S35-S51

Abstract: A tailor-made survey documents consumers’ perceptions of the US economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer’s perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers’ views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.

Keywords: Consumer expectations; Survey; Large shock; Uncertainty; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Related works:
Working Paper: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2021)
Working Paper: News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact (2021)
Working Paper: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:moneco:v:129:y:2022:i:s:p:s35-s51

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004

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