Towards landslide predictions: two case studies

D Sornette, A Helmstetter, J.v Andersen, S Gluzman, J.-R Grasso and V Pisarenko

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, vol. 338, issue 3, 605-632

Abstract: In a previous work (J. Geophys. Res. (2004)), we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider-block model with a state- and velocity-dependent friction law. This model predicts two regimes of sliding, stable and unstable leading to a critical finite-time singularity. This model was calibrated quantitatively to the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont (Italian Alps) and La Clapière (French Alps), showing that the former (resp. later) landslide is in the unstable (resp. stable) sliding regime. Here, we test the predictive skills of the state- and velocity-dependent model on these two landslides with a variety of techniques using (i) a finite-time singularity power law, (ii) the state- and velocity-dependent friction law and (iii) resummation methods extrapolating from early times. For the Vaiont landslide, our model provides good predictions of the critical time of failure up to 20 days before the collapse. Tests are also presented on the predictability of the time of the change of regime for La Clapière landslide.

Keywords: Landslides; Solid friction; Prediction; Velocity dependent friction; State dependent friction; Finite-time singularity; La Clapiere landslide; Vaiont landslide (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437104002596
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:338:y:2004:i:3:p:605-632

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.02.065

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().