Phase diagram of epidemic spreading — unimodal vs. bimodal probability distributions

Alen Lančić, Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Mile Šikić and Hrvoje Štefančić

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2011, vol. 390, issue 1, 65-76

Abstract: Disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of disease spreading are in general characterized by a bimodal probability distribution. Phase diagrams of disease spreading for empirical complex networks are introduced. A theoretical model of disease spreading on m-ary tree is investigated both analytically and in simulations. It is shown that the model reproduces qualitative features of phase diagrams of disease spreading observed in empirical complex networks. The role of tree-like structure of complex networks in disease spreading is discussed.

Keywords: Epidemic spreading; SIR model; Bimodal probability distribution; Phase diagram; Complex networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:1:p:65-76

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.06.024

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