Statistical characteristics of breakthrough discoveries in science using the metaphor of black and white swans

Carl J. Zeng, Eric P. Qi, Simon S. Li, H. Eugene Stanley and Fred Y. Ye

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, vol. 487, issue C, 40-46

Abstract: A publication that reports a breakthrough discovery in a particular scientific field is referred to as a “black swan”, and the most highly-cited papers previously published in the same field “white swans”. Important scientific progress occurs when “white swans” meet a “black swan”, and the citation patterns of the “white swans” change. This metaphor combines scientific discoveries and scientometric data and suggests that breakthrough scientific discoveries are either “black swans” or “grey-black swans”.

Keywords: Scientific discovery; Breakthrough discovery; White swan; Black swan; Grey swan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:487:y:2017:i:c:p:40-46

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.041

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