Lead–lag relationships in foreign exchange markets

Lasko Basnarkov, Viktor Stojkoski, Zoran Utkovski and Ljupco Kocarev

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2020, vol. 539, issue C

Abstract: Lead–lag relationships among assets represent a useful tool for analyzing high frequency financial data. However, research on these relationships predominantly focuses on correlation analyses for the dynamics of stock prices, spots and futures on market indexes, whereas foreign exchange data have been less explored. To provide a valuable insight on the nature of the lead–lag relationships in foreign exchange markets here we perform a detailed study for the one-minute log returns on exchange rates through three different approaches: (i) lagged correlations, (ii) lagged partial correlations and (iii) Granger causality. In all studies, we find that even though for most pairs of exchange rates lagged effects are absent, there are many pairs which pass statistical significance tests. Out of the statistically significant relationships, we construct directed networks and investigate the influence of individual exchange rates through the PageRank algorithm. The algorithm, in general, ranks stock market indexes quoted in their respective currencies, as most influential. In contrast to the claims of the efficient market hypothesis, these findings suggest that all market information does not spread instantaneously.

Keywords: Foreign exchange; Lagged correlations; Partial correlations; Correlation networks; Granger causality; Efficient market hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119316887
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

Related works:
Working Paper: Lead-lag Relationships in Foreign Exchange Markets (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:539:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119316887

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122986

Access Statistics for this article

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications is currently edited by K. A. Dawson, J. O. Indekeu, H.E. Stanley and C. Tsallis

More articles in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().