A novel grey model based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model: A case study of COVD-19

Huiming Duan and Weige Nie

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022, vol. 602, issue C

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has lasted for nearly two years, and the global epidemic situation is still grim and growing. Therefore, it is necessary to make correct predictions about the epidemic to implement appropriate and effective epidemic prevention measures. This paper analyzes the classic Susceptible Infected Recovered Model (SIR) to understand the significance of model characteristics and parameters, and uses the differential and difference information of the grey system to put forward a grey prediction model based on SIR infectious disease model. The Laplace transform is used to calculate the model reduction formula, and finally obtain the modeling steps of the model. It is applied to large and small numerical cases to verify the validity of different orders of magnitude data. Meanwhile, data of different lengths are modeled and predicted to verify the robustness of model. Finally, the new model is compared with three classical grey prediction models. The results show that the model is significantly superior to the comparison model, indicating that the model can effectively predict the COVID-19 epidemic, and is applicable to countries with different population magnitude, can carry out stable and effective simulation and prediction for data of different lengths.

Keywords: SIR infectious disease; Grey prediction model; COVID-19; Laplace transform; Buffer operator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:602:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122004228

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127622

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