Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019

Nick James and Max Menzies

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022, vol. 608, issue P1

Abstract: We introduce new frameworks to study spatio-temporal patterns in carbon dioxide emissions, demographic trends and economic patterns across 50 countries over the past 50 years. Our analysis is broken up into four sections. First, we introduce a new method to classify countries into one of three characteristic emissions classes based on a one, two or three-segment piecewise linear model. We reveal that most countries are best represented by a piecewise linear model with one change point. Next, we perform a decade-by-decade study of carbon dioxide trajectories. There, we demonstrate notable changes in cluster structures in each decade. We then study the spatial propagation of emissions over time, highlighting a peak in spatial dispersion in 2000, beyond which there has been a gradual decline in spatial emissions variance over space. Finally, we use carbon dioxide, GDP, and population data and apply dimensionality reduction and clustering to group countries based on similarity in their real and carbon economies.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; Time series analysis; Geographic variance; Dimensionality reduction; Clustering; Change point detection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:608:y:2022:i:p1:s0378437122008603

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.128302

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