Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy

Roman Horvath and Júlia Jonášová

European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, vol. 38, issue C, 229-243

Abstract: We examine whether central banks' voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, we first examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, examine the predictive power of voting records over longer time horizons, i.e., the next monetary policy meeting and beyond. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about monetary policy at even more distant time horizons.

Keywords: Voting records; Financial crisis; Central bank; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D78 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Central Banks Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:poleco:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:229-243

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.03.003

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