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Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of others’ beliefs

Dzung Bui, Lena Dräger, Bernd Hayo and Giang Nghiem

European Journal of Political Economy, 2023, vol. 77, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of information about cross-country ratings of the government’s and the public’s reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers’ macroeconomic expectations and sentiment. We conduct consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in two waves in Thailand and Vietnam. The information treatments have the strongest effect when the information shown contradicts consumers’ prior beliefs. In the first survey, conducted when the first lockdown was eased, treatment effects are stronger in Vietnam, causing more optimistic expectations and sentiment. In the second survey, conducted at the start of the second wave of infections, treatment effects are stronger in Thailand, causing a more pessimistic outlook.

Keywords: Consumer sentiment; COVID-19; Randomized control trial (RCT); Survey experiment; Belief updating; Macroeconomic expectations; Thailand; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E21 E37 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:poleco:v:77:y:2023:i:c:s0176268022000921

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102295

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