 Providing a measure for bullwhip effect in a two-product supply chain with exponential smoothing forecastsAhmad Sadeghi International Journal of Production Economics, 2015, vol. 169, issue C, 44-54 Abstract: In this paper, a two-product and two-echelon supply chain is considered in order to quantify the bullwhip effect. Demands of the products are correlated and are represented by a first order vector autoregressive model. Retailer uses “order up to” ordering policy for replenishment of stocks and utilizes exponential smoothing forecast method to predict demand in lead-time period. According to the mentioned assumptions, an equation is derived for bullwhip effect measurement and then a numerical example is presented for a better perception of the bullwhip effect behavior when the parameters change. A comparison of the bullwhip effect measure has been done when two main forecasting methods i.e. exponential smoothing and moving average are used and empirical results are provided. At last, a cost analysis is conducted based on shortage and holding cost under different bullwhip effect measures. Keywords: Supply chain; Exponential smoothing forecast; OUT policy; VAR (1) demand process (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:proeco:v:169:y:2015:i:c:p:44-54 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.07.012 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Production Economics is currently edited by Stefan Minner More articles in International Journal of Production Economics from Elsevier |
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