Demand forecasting with four-parameter exponential smoothing

Liljana Ferbar Tratar, Blaž Mojškerc and Aleš Toman

International Journal of Production Economics, 2016, vol. 181, issue PA, 162-173

Abstract: Exponential smoothing methods are powerful tools for denoising time series, predicting future demand and decreasing inventory costs. In this paper we develop a smoothing and forecasting method that is intuitive, easy to implement, computationally stable, and can satisfactorily handle both, additive and multiplicative seasonality, even when time series contain several zero entries and large noise component.

Keywords: Demand forecasting; Exponential smoothing methods; Seasonal data; Holt-Winters methods; Damped trend methods; M3-Competition; Individual products; Symmetric relative efficiency measure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:proeco:v:181:y:2016:i:pa:p:162-173

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.08.004

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