Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919

Robert Barro

Research in Economics, 2022, vol. 76, issue 2, 93-106

Abstract: A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to overall flu-related excess death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. These findings differ from those associated with COVID-19 in the sense that facemask mandates and usage seem to reduce COVID-related cases.

Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (2020)
Working Paper: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reecon:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:93-106

DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001

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