 Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze RiverD. Zhang, X.P. Yan, Z.L. Yang, A. Wall and J. Wang Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2013, vol. 118, issue C, 93-105 Abstract: Formal safety assessment (FSA), as a structured and systematic risk evaluation methodology, has been increasingly and broadly used in the shipping industry around the world. Concerns have been raised as to navigational safety of the Yangtze River, China's largest and the world's busiest inland waterway. Over the last few decades, the throughput of ships in the Yangtze River has increased rapidly due to the national development of the Middle and Western parts of China. Accidents such as collisions, groundings, contacts, oil-spills and fires occur repeatedly, often causing serious consequences. In order to improve the navigational safety in the Yangtze River, this paper estimates the navigational risk of the Yangtze River using the FSA concept and a Bayesian network (BN) technique. The navigational risk model is established by considering both probability and consequences of accidents with respect to a risk matrix method, followed by a scenario analysis to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. Keywords: Maritime safety; Formal safety assessment (FSA); Bayesian network; Risk matrix; Yangtze River (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:118:y:2013:i:c:p:93-105 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.04.006 Access Statistics for this article Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier |
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