How the integration of System 1-System 2 thinking and recent risk perspectives can improve risk assessment and management

Terje Aven

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2018, vol. 180, issue C, 237-244

Abstract: In the field of risk perception and behavioural decision-making, a dichotomy is commonly made by two modes of thought: System 1, which operates automatically and quickly, instinctively and emotionally, and System 2, which is slower, more logical, and deliberative. A considerable body of literature exists linking this dichotomy to risk analysis. It is argued that, to properly respond to and handle risk, both types of thinking are needed; they are complementary. However, current risk assessment practice is to a large extent founded on System 2 thinking. System 1 thinking is associated with affects and risk perception, separated from the professional/scientific risk assessments. The present paper argues that this practice is rooted in a traditional risk assessment perspective, highlighting probabilistic and statistical modelling and analysis. Using broader and recent perspectives on risk, highlighting uncertainties instead of probabilities, there is a potential to improve this practice and to also obtain a stronger use of System 1 thinking in risk assessments. The aim of the paper is to provide substance to these theses, by formalising the issues raised and outlining suitable approaches and methods for how to obtain the desired integration of both System 1 and System 2 thinking in professional risk assessment and management.

Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:180:y:2018:i:c:p:237-244

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.07.031

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