Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling

Hua-Peng Chen and Mehrdad Bahari Mehrabani

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, vol. 185, issue C, 163-174

Abstract: This paper presents a method for time-dependent reliability analysis, future performance predictions and optimum maintenance strategy of coastal flood defences such as earth sea dykes subjected to changing operation conditions. The reliability analysis takes into account both the changes of hydraulic variables such as water level and wave height due to climate change and the deterioration of structural capacities such as crest freeboard loss and soil seepage length degradation over time. A probabilistic time-dependent semi-Markov process is adopted for estimating the transition probabilities on the basis of available field data through routine inspections and expert judgements. Limit state equations are established for evaluating time-dependent probability of failures associated with wave overtopping through the flood defence crest and piping in the underlying water conductive soils. A multi-objective optimisation method is then employed to find optimum solution space for asset inspection and maintenance by minimising both costs for inspection and annual risk of structural failures. The results for a typical earth sea dyke at Thames Estuary show that the probability of failures associated with wave overtopping and soil piping will increase significantly over time, thus appropriate maintenance strategy is required to reduce the risk caused by changing operating conditions.

Keywords: Flood defence; Sea level rise; Deterioration modelling; Reliability analysis; Multi-objective optimisation; Maintenance strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018308810
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:163-174

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.021

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().