Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace

Valdés, Rosa Maria Arnaldo, Comendador, Victor Fernando Gómez, Castán, Javier Alberto Perez, Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz, Luis Perez Sanz, Eduardo Sanchez Ayra and Francisco Javier Saez Nieto

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, vol. 186, issue C, 143-161

Abstract: The occurrence of Losses Of Separation between aircraft in an airspace that could lead to Mid Air Collisions (MAC) is of major concern to Air Traffic Management. This paper uses an innovative approach to develop Safety Performance Functions to predict the occurrence of losses of separation. This will improve the safety conditions under which airlines operate. A data driven approach is used to characterise the Losses Of Separation between aircraft as count data with an excess of zeros and over dispersion. Subsequently, the relationships between the number of aircraft conflicts in a particular route segment and the airspace design and traffic flow characteristics are modelled using Zero-inflated models. Based on the characteristics of the route segment, the distribution that most closely matches observations of the number of conflicts in airspace segments is a Zero-inflated negative binomial probability distribution. It also takes account of the large amount of null values that characterise safety occurrences in aviation.

Keywords: Safety performance factors; Air transports; Losses of separation: zero-inflated negative binomial distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:143-161

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.007

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