Procedures to model and solve probabilistic dynamic system problems

Rafael Raoni and Argimiro R. Secchi

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, vol. 191, issue C

Abstract: Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), characterized by process-behaviours modelling and event likelihood calculation, has great importance for quantitative risk evaluation. PSA presents some difficulties for implementation, mainly when the analysis of a dynamic process is required. In this work, a set of procedures to formulate and solve Probabilistic Dynamic System Problems (PDSPs) is presented. Such procedures explain how events should be modelled and connected with each other to build a process model that makes it possible to answer two main questions: (i) What is the discrete probability of occurrence of a specific process event? And, given its occurrence (ii) What is the distribution of event time to occurrence? After answering these questions, the event-occurrence probability in a specific length of time, which is the main goal of PSA, is easily calculated. To explain this proposal, two PDSPs are solved: the pressure change in a vessel caused by failure of two valves and the change in holdup tank level caused by failure of two pumps and one valve.

Keywords: Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA); Probabilistic Dynamic System Problem (PDSP); Monte Carlo simulation; Deterministic and stochastic modeling; Risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183201830084X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s095183201830084x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106554

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().