Short-term supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline system under demand variations

Qian Chen, Lili Zuo, Changchun Wu, Yaran Bu, Yifei Lu, Yanfei Huang and Feng Chen

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2020, vol. 202, issue C

Abstract: It is the basic responsibility for pipeline companies to satisfy the gas demand of customers. A methodology is proposed to assess the short-term supply reliability of a gas pipeline system under demand variations in this paper. Based on the failure rate and repair rate of the pipe segments and compressor units obtained through historical operational data, the probability under different structural failure scenarios of a gas pipeline system is computed through the stochastic process and probability theory. Indices from aspects of adequacy, availability, and shortage rate are developed to reflect the supply reliability. To reflect the assessment results intuitively, the cumulative probability function is adopted to reflect the supply adequacy and availability, and the probability distribution is adopted to reflect the supply shortage rate during the assessment period. For all scenarios, supply reliability is calculated through batch transient hydraulic and thermal simulations of a gas pipeline system by Stoner Pipeline Simulator considering practical operational processes and legal constraints. The proposed methodology is performed based on the Trans-Asian gas pipeline A-B system, and the functions of cross-over valves on supply reliability of the Trans-Asian gas pipeline A-B system is studied.

Keywords: Gas pipeline system; Supply reliability; Reliability indices; Cross-over valves; Transient hydraulic-thermal simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305056

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107004

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