Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike

Cheng-lin Zhai and Xiao-wei Chen

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2020, vol. 202, issue C

Abstract: Quantification of the target damage under missile striking is not only a key issue in the field of damage, but also an important basis for the attack strategy evaluation. Based on Monte Carlo method, an improved quantitative method of building target probability damage is proposed in this study. By analyzing the relationship between landing points of the warhead and damage contour lines of the target, this method can quickly, accurately and reliably evaluate the percentage of damaged area Pd of the target under a warhead attack. Firstly, the method takes the percentage of damaged area Pd as a standard to measure the damage degree of the building target, and determines how the percentage of damaged area Pd is related to overpressure Ps and impulse i. Secondly, based on different target scales and the TNT equivalents of the missile warhead, the evaluated target is discretized and corresponding grid division criteria are formulated. Thirdly, building targets with different equivalent areas are taken as objects, and the percentage of the damaged area of each target under different landing points is calculated. Landing points with the same percentage of damaged area Pd are connected to obtain damage contour lines of respective targets. Finally, Monte Carlo method is used to simulate missile landing points, which are distributed in the form of a two-dimensional normal distribution, where the distribution center point is the ideal landing point. Combined with the damage contour line, the damage probability value under the arbitrary percentage of the damaged area of each target can be obtained.

Keywords: Damage probability; Monte carlo method; Discrete meshing; Damaged area; Damage contour line (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305317

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107030

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