Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

Kris Villez, Dario Del Giudice, Marc B. Neumann and Rieckermann, Jörg

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2020, vol. 203, issue C

Abstract: In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. In this work, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

Keywords: Bias description; Kinetic model; Process design; Wastewater treatment; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305767

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107075

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