 A generalized model for recurrent failures predictionAlexander Yevkin and Vasiliy Krivtsov Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2020, vol. 204, issue C Abstract: There is a variety of models available for repairable systems with general repairs. Most popular are the Kijima models (reflecting the generalized renewal process of recurrent failures) and the Lam model (reflecting the geometric process). The Kijima models relating system's real and virtual ages can be thought of as the time shift transformation, whereas the Lam model – as the time scale transformation. In this paper, a new model is proposed that combines these two fundamental transformations within a new probabilistic formulation. Besides probabilistic aspect of the model, the maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters is discussed, and its performance is illustrated through several numerical examples using both simulated and real–life data. The efficient Monte Carlo calculation method is suggested for the expected number of recurrent events, unavailability, and the failure intensity function. Keywords: G–renewal process; Kijima models; Geometric process; Arithmetic age reduction; Failure intensity (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:204:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020306268 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107125 Access Statistics for this article Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier |
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