Railway dangerous goods transportation system risk analysis: An Interpretive Structural Modeling and Bayesian Network combining approach

Wencheng Huang, Yue Zhang, Xingyi Kou, Dezhi Yin, Rongwei Mi and Linqing Li

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2020, vol. 204, issue C

Abstract: In this paper, an Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Bayesian Network (BN) combining approach is applied to analyze the relationships and interaction strengths among the risk factors or accident causes of railway dangerous goods transportation system (RDGTS), quantitatively. According to the statistical data, 17 sub-indicators are concluded and applied as the nodes in BN. Based on the 17 sub-indicators and with the help of experts, the combined ISM and BN approach is used to analyze the system risk with seven steps: establish the relation matrix, calculate the reachability matrix, divide the reachability matrix into different levels, form the directed graph, form the Bayesian Network, establish the prior marginal and conditional probabilities of the sub-indicators in the BN, causal reasoning for the BN and obtain the final probabilities of occurrence for all sub-indicators. The conditional probability tables (CPTs) are used to express the relationships and interaction strengths among the nodes and the parent node variables. The final analysis results show that the sub-indicator, staffs are lack of technical and knowledge during transportation processes, has the highest impact to the RDGTS with probability 0.74, and the sudden natural disaster has the weakest impact to the RDGTS with probability 0.05.

Keywords: Railway dangerous goods transportation system; Risk analysis; Interpretive Structural Modeling; Bayesian Network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020307213
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:204:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020307213

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107220

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().