Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems

William Hughes, Wei Zhang, Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou, David Wanik, Osvaldo Pensado, Hao Yuan and Jintao Zhang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 207, issue C

Abstract: Several disastrous storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012, that brought massive area power outages for several days and even weeks in some areas, highlight the necessity of enhancing the physical power distribution system, including the pole-wire network. To develop grid hardening strategies, accurate damage predictions from extreme weather events are needed to make decisions implementing cost-effective hazard preparation measures. Physics-based modeling supported by historical data has been found to better link extreme weather events, structural failure, and power outages for improved prediction of pole-wire system performance. A damage modeling framework for the overhead power distribution system (DM-OPD) is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of grid reliability enhancements under budgetary constraints. Monte Carlo simulation is used to consider various uncertainties of the power distribution system. The methodology is presented alongside a case study of conditions imposed by Hurricane Sandy in the State of Connecticut considering effects of aging infrastructure and pole replacement as a demonstrative hardening action. Due to uncertainties regarding several economic parameters, various scenarios are presented for utility companies to analyze the cost-effectiveness. The results indicate infrastructure age is a critical factor in the power system resilience under extreme storm events, with pole replacement having high potential for outage reductions. However, with its high associated costs, pole replacement should be reserved only for highly weakened poles.

Keywords: Grid resilience hardening; pole-wire distribution powerline fragility; power outage prediction; pole replacement; Hurricane Sandy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308565

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107367

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