Pipe breaks and estimating the impact of pressure control in water supply networks

Carlos Jara-Arriagada and Ivan Stoianov

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 210, issue C

Abstract: The deterioration and fracture of water supply pipes present a major threat for the continuous provision of drinking water. The hydraulic pressure in pipes is an influential factor for the occurrence of pipe breaks. However, little evidence has been provided so far for the quantitative assessment of the impact of pressure control on reducing the number of pipe breaks. In this paper, we applied logistic regression with polynomial terms, and a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential impact of pressure control on reducing pipe breaks. A large dataset of historic pipe breaks was used to develop and validate the presented method. Cast iron and asbestos cement pipes were examined in detail. Results showed that pipe breaks could be decreased by 18% to 30% by reducing the mean pressure for the investigated cohorts of asbestos cement and cast iron pipes. Pressure range reduction could provide larger impacts on both pipe materials. These results indicate that proactively controlling the hydraulic pressure may have a potentially significant impact on the reliability and sustainability of water supply networks.

Keywords: Pipe breaks; Logistic regression; Machine learning; Pressure control; Water supply networks management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:210:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021000843

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107525

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