Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision

Julian Salomon, Niklas Winnewisser, Pengfei Wei, Matteo Broggi and Michael Beer

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 216, issue C

Abstract: In this work, the reliability of complex systems under consideration of imprecision is addressed. By joining two methods coming from different fields, namely, structural reliability and system reliability, a novel methodology is derived. The concepts of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory and the two versions of non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) methods are adapted and merged, providing an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems taking into account the whole uncertainty spectrum. The new approach combines both of the advantageous characteristics of its two original components: 1. a significant reduction of the computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature, i.e., once the system structure has been computed, any possible characterization of the probabilistic part can be tested with no need to recompute the structure and 2. a dramatically reduced sample size due to the adapted NISS methods, for which only a single stochastic simulation is required, avoiding the double loop simulations traditionally employed.

Keywords: Survival signature; System reliability; Complex systems; Reliability analysis; Epistemic uncertainty; Imprecision; Fuzzy probabilities; Extended Monte Carlo methods; Non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004828

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107972

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