A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping

Shanshan Fu, Yuerong Yu, Jihong Chen, Yongtao Xi and Mingyang Zhang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 226, issue C

Abstract: The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping.

Keywords: Arctic shipping; Grounding; Quantitative risk assessment; AcciMap; Bayesian network; Risk control options; Maritime accident investigation reports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022003313
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:226:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003313

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108706

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().