Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience

Luis Ceferino, Ning Lin and Dazhi Xi

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2023, vol. 229, issue C

Abstract: Solar generation can become a major and global source of clean energy by 2050. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed its resilience to extreme events, and none have used empirical data to characterize the fragility of solar panels. This paper develops fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted solar panels calibrated with solar panel structural performance data in the Caribbean for Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019. After estimating the hurricane wind fields, we follow a Bayesian approach to estimate fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted panels based on the observations supplemented with existing numerical studies on solar panel vulnerability. Next, we apply the developed fragility functions to assess failure rates due to hurricane hazards in Miami-Dade, Florida, highlighting that the panels perform below the code requirements, especially rooftop panels. We also illustrate that strength increases can improve the panels' structural performance effectively. However, strength increases by a factor of two still cannot meet the reliability stated in the code.

Keywords: Solar panels; Fragility functions; Hurricane hazards; Bayesian update; Structural reliability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022005117
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:229:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022005117

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().