 Novel method of dynamic event tree keeping the number of simulations in risk analysis smallFujio Kaneko and Tomohiro Yuzui Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2023, vol. 231, issue C Abstract: Conducting a risk analysis on nuclear plants using the dynamic event tree (DET) to improve the accuracy of consequence analysis of the system state significantly increases the number of event tree (ET) branches. Several methods have been developed to reduce the number of branches and event sequences of DET. In this study, we developed a new risk analysis method using a relatively small ET to estimate risk considering time changes in the system state of a target system, in a drastic short time. The main features of the proposed method are: to set some headings which cause the same branches on every event sequence outside of the ET for keeping it small; to set the probability distribution function or cumulative distribution function of the time to activating each of safety measures which have the monotonous relation to the risk; and to estimate the maximum and minimum risk values of every event sequence using these probabilistic distributions. Keywords: Dynamic event tree; Pruning of branches; Simulation; System state; Reducing the number of event sequences (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s095183202200624x DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.109009 Access Statistics for this article Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier |
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