Resilience assessment methodology of natural gas network system under random leakage

Qiangqiang Jiang, Baoping Cai, Yanping Zhang, Min Xie and Cuiwei Liu

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2023, vol. 234, issue C

Abstract: Natural gas accounts for more than 20% of global primary energy demand. Potential natural or man-made disasters can cause natural gas supply shortages, with severe economic and social consequences. System resilience is difficult to achieve because of many factors affecting the natural gas network system (NGNS) and the uncertainty of the timing, location, and shock strengths. A new methodology for evaluating the resilience of NGNS under random leakage conditions is developed by combining Monte Carlo simulation and hydraulic analysis of an unsteady flow. A resilience metric based on gas supply capacity and reliability is proposed. The extensive time delay and nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the system caused by the compressibility of the natural gas are considered in combination with hydraulic analysis. System uncertainty in damage and recovery states is resolved by batch simulation of the random leakage. The resilience value is calculated by integrating the performance curve. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on the NGNS of Shandong Province, China, and results show that it can effectively assess the resilience of the NGNS under random leakage conditions.

Keywords: Resilience assessment; Natural gas network system; Hydraulic analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Random leakage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:234:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023000492

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109134

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