Risk-based portfolio planning of dike reinforcements

Frank den Heijer and Matthijs Kok

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 242, issue C

Abstract: A system of dikes in flood-prone areas continuously requires measures to mitigate changes such as ageing and climate change. Planning costly measures requires proper insight into system risk effects. Especially in a riverine dike system, the risk contributions of individual assets to the system flood risks are not independent, because reinforcement of a dike upstream increases the risks downstream. Tactical plans define the planning of consecutive measures to implement a flood risk reduction strategy, which may take decades. They may differ due to choices such as a prioritization metric, planning conditions and budget. In this study, a method is developed to compare different tactics to prioritize and plan measures in interdependent systems of dikes to reduce risks most effectively and efficiently. A case study meant as a proof of concept was carried out for the reinforcement of about 500Â km of dikes along the Rhine River branches in the Netherlands. We studied the effects of 12 different tactical plans on the aggregated risks over time. The economic risks differ by up to about 40%, and the risks on victims differ by up to 70Â %. We conclude that tactical planning and corresponding decisions are important for reduction of time-aggregated flood risks.

Keywords: Flood risk; Tactical decision making; Portfolio planning; Dike reinforcements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023006518
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:242:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023006518

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109737

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().