The effects of dynamic multi-hazard risk assessment on evacuation strategies in chemical accidents

Zhichao He, Kaixin Shen, Meng Lan and Wenguo Weng

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 246, issue C

Abstract: With the agglomeration and complication of the chemical industry, the multi-hazard and dynamic characteristics have become new challenges for chemical safety management and loss prevention research. As an important topic of safety research in chemical industries, the evacuation strategy also needs to be improved according to the new characteristics of chemical accidents. Here we propose a method for evacuation strategy development in chemical accidents based on dynamic and multi-hazard risk assessment. This method adopts the cumulative individual risk as the evaluation indicator for the optimal evacuation strategy. This method can dynamically consider the multi-hazard characteristics and domino effects of chemical accidents during the evacuation. A multi-hazard chemical accident that happened in Xiangshui, China in 2019 is taken as a case study to show the effects of risk assessment results on evacuation strategy development. The case shows that a reasonable time period for shelter-in-place after the occurrence of the primary accident can reduce the cumulative individual risk in the evacuation process. It is expected that this paper can provide guidance and reference for loss prevention in chemical industries, and can also provide useful tools for the management of emergency response.

Keywords: Risk assessment; Evacuation strategy; Multi-hazard; Chemical accident; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:246:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001194

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110044

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