Scenario reduction-based simulation method for efficient serviceability assessment of earthquake-damaged water distribution systems

Rui Jia, Kun Du, Zhigang Song, Wei Xu and Feifei Zheng

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 246, issue C

Abstract: Water distribution systems (WDSs) are vulnerable to earthquake damage, highlighting the need to assess their seismic serviceability. While existing simulation-based methods hold promise for accurate assessments, their applicability to large networks is limited by the prohibitive computational burden and longer simulation times. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a scenario reduction-based simulation method for efficiently evaluating earthquake-damaged WDS serviceability. Initially, a sufficient number of earthquake-damaged scenarios are generated using Mentor Carlo simulation, and a novel linear pressure estimation method (LPEM) is developed to approximate nodal pressures for each scenario. Subsequently, hierarchical clustering is employed to categorize all scenarios based on the similarities of estimated nodal pressures, after which representative scenarios are selected to estimate the system serviceability. The proposed method, tested on four benchmark WDSs across different seismic intensities, provides a reliable estimation of seismic serviceability while achieving a remarkable 100-fold enhancement in computational time compared to the conventional method. The newly proposed LPEM yields promising results in estimating nodal pressure for damaged WDSs with multiple bursts, with errors mostly below 3 m and all R2 values exceeding 0.9. This contributes significantly to the simulation-based serviceability assessment of WDSs, especially in the context of post-earthquake scenarios.

Keywords: Water distribution systems; Earthquake damage; Seismic serviceability; Scenario reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024001601
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:246:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001601

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110086

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().