Copula-based wind-induced failure prediction of overhead transmission line considering multiple temperature factors

Xiangrui Meng, Li Tian, Chao Li and Juncai Liu

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 247, issue C

Abstract: The overhead transmission line (OTL), which remains exposed to the outdoor environment for extended durations, is subjected to significant temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations can alter the structural characteristics of the OTL, thereby increasing the uncertainties associated with wind-induced responses and wind-induced failures. As a consequence, this paper introduces a probabilistic assessment methodology considering structure-ambient temperature interaction, and utilizes it to investigate the wind-induced performance of an OTL under different operator temperatures. Based on the meteorological data, a prediction model for the conductor operator temperature is developed incorporating multiple temperature factors. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed to numerically investigate the effect of temperature on the natural frequency and dynamic response of the OTL. Moreover, the failure probabilities of the OTL under different temperatures are evaluated combing with a Copula-based joint probability distribution of temperature and wind speed. The analytical results reveal that lower temperatures correspond to greater wind-induced response. Moreover, when considering the actual distribution of wind-temperature hazards, lower temperatures do not necessarily entail the highest wind-induced damage probability. This study provides valuable insights for evaluating the safety of OTLs under the combined influence of wind and temperature.

Keywords: Overhead transmission line; Wind load; Thermal effects; Fragility surface; Failure probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002126

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110138

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