Impacts of stochastic forecast errors of renewable energy generation and load demands on microgrid operation

Yahong Chen, Changhong Deng, Weiwei Yao, Ning Liang, Pei Xia, Peng Cao, Yiwang Dong, Yuan-ao Zhang, Zhichao Liu, Dinglin Li, Man Chen and Peng Peng

Renewable Energy, 2019, vol. 133, issue C, 442-461

Abstract: Evaluating the impacts related to stochastic forecast errors (SFE) of renewable energy generation and load demands on the operation of micro grid is an important issue. In previous researches, the negative effects of SFE on micro grid are mainly focusing on power quality, system control, and operation, etc. The objective of this study is to investigate how SFE affects the operation stability of energy storage system (ESS) from the perspective of the state of charge (SOC). To this end, novel SFE propagation and accumulation models are introduced. Efficient quantification models of impacts of SFE on the variance of SOC are presented. These models elucidate in detail the mechanism of ESS working from stable to unstable state due to SOC deviation. Then, some metrics are introduced to evaluate the impacts of SFE on service lifetime of units, the cycle life of ESS and operation economy of micro grid. Finally, illustrative numerical results are provided and compared using a self-developed new simulation program named MG-ROS, which can simulate the actual operation of micro grid under SFE.

Keywords: Micro grid; Energy management; Impacts of SFE; Propagation and accumulation of SFE; SOC deviation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118311844
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:133:y:2019:i:c:p:442-461

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.09.110

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable Energy is currently edited by Soteris A. Kalogirou and Paul Christodoulides

More articles in Renewable Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().