Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants

Francis M. Lopes, Ricardo Conceição, Hugo G. Silva, Rui Salgado and Manuel Collares-Pereira

Renewable Energy, 2021, vol. 163, issue C, 755-771

Abstract: To contribute for improved operational strategies of concentrating solar power plants with accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance, this work describes the use of several post-processing methods on numerical weather prediction. Focus is given to a multivariate regression model that uses measured irradiance values from previous hours to improve next-hour predictions, which can be used to refine daily strategies based on day-ahead predictions. Short-term forecasts provided by the Integrated Forecasting System, the global model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used together with measurements in southern Portugal. As a nowcasting tool, the proposed regression model significantly improves hourly predictions with a skill score of ≈0.84 (i.e. an increase of ≈27.29% towards the original hourly forecasts). Using previous-day measured availability to improve next-day forecasts, the model shows a skill score of ≈0.78 (i.e. an increase of ≈6% towards the original forecasts), being further improved if larger sets of data are used. Through a power plant simulator (i.e. the System Advisor Model), a preliminary economic analysis shows that using improved hourly predictions of electrical energy allows to enhance a power plant’s profit in ≈0.44 M€/year, as compared with the original forecasts. Operational strategies are proposed accordingly.

Keywords: ECMWF; Direct normal irradiance; Short-term forecasting; Model output statistics; Concentrating solar power operation; Energy production simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:755-771

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.140

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