Identifying the effect of forecast uncertainties on hybrid power system operation: A case study of Longyangxia hydro–photovoltaic plant in China

Yu Gong, Pan Liu, Bo Ming and Dingfang Li

Renewable Energy, 2021, vol. 178, issue C, 1303-1321

Abstract: Power system operations are unavoidably influenced by forecast uncertainties. The forecast uncertainty's effect on operations was quantified in individual systems, however, was seldom investigated in a hybrid system. This study aims to quantify the effect of forecast uncertainties on the hybrid hydro–photovoltaic system operation. First, the operation model is built considering streamflow and photovoltaic forecast uncertainties with long- and short-time scales. Second, total release uncertainty is determined from the sum of squares for releases under different forecast scenarios. Finally, a variance partitioning method is used to divide the total release uncertainty into the uncertainties induced by individual forecast errors. Longyangxia hybrid hydro–photovoltaic power plant from China was selected as a case study. Results provide following insights: (1) long-term inflow forecast uncertainty accounts for 98.89% of the contribution to the long-term release uncertainty, while photovoltaic uncertainty accounts for 1.11%; (2) long-term inflow forecast uncertainty still dominates the short-term release uncertainty, with the contribution of 62.06%; and (3) the total release uncertainty decreases in long-term hybrid operation compared with the reservoir operation, indicating the complementary relationship between long-term hydropower and photovoltaic power. These implications highlight the importance of improving forecast accuracies for varied energy sources at different time scales.

Keywords: Hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power system; Renewable energy; Forecast uncertainty; Long- and short-term operation; Variance partitioning method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:renene:v:178:y:2021:i:c:p:1303-1321

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.104

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