Past and prospective electricity scenarios in Madagascar: The role of government energy policies

Jean Philippe Praene, Rindrasoa Miangaly Rasamoelina and Leslie Ayagapin

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021, vol. 149, issue C

Abstract: A thorough understanding of the mechanisms influencing electricity use is imperative for the implementation of energy scenarios. This study first explores Madagascar’s electricity consumption during the 1987–2015 period using a decomposition method. Next, a sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted, which allows factors that have a significant influence on the different effects (activity, structure, and intensity) to be defined. Scenarios are then designed from regression models based on the SA. The main results revealed the following. (1) This study confirmed that the activity factor was the driving force of energy growth, accounting for more than 107.5% of the total electricity consumption. (2) The negative impacts of structural and intensity effects are particularly marked in periods of political disruption. (3) National energy policy (called “New Energy Policy” (NPE)) based scenario shows a significant electricity variation of 4084 GWh over the 2015–2030 period. By minimizing the intensity effect change to 9.87% between 2015 and 2030, the NPE scenario’s total consumption increase is limited to 4084 GWh. By contrast, this amount is 398 GWh for the BAU scenario with a 22% intensity effect. These developed scenarios seek to illuminate the tradeoffs entailed by the various development paths toward Madagascar’s ambition to become an emerging country.

Keywords: Prospective; Scenario planning; Sensitivity analysis; Energy consumption; Madagascar (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121006067
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:rensus:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121006067

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600126/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111321

Access Statistics for this article

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews is currently edited by L. Kazmerski

More articles in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().