Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy

Mattia Borsati, Silvio Nocera and Marco Percoco

Research in Transportation Economics, 2022, vol. 95, issue C

Abstract: Within the much broader framework of global interest, the dilemma concerning the real impact of mode of transport on the spread of COVID-19 has been a priority for transport stakeholders and policy-makers. How dangerous is it to move around a certain territory? Does the danger depend on the mode of transport? By considering a novel and detailed dataset at the level of local labour markets, we analysed the spatial association between the pre-pandemic propensity to use public transport and excess mortality in Italy attributable to the initial spread of COVID-19. We found that places characterised by larger commuting flows exhibit higher excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic, but observed no significant spatial association between excess mortality and transit usage. Our results were obtained by considering a wide range of heterogeneity in the estimation of quantile regressions across a variety of specifications. Although we do not provide a definitive answer concerning the risk associated with transit use, our analysis suggests that mobility, not modal choice, should be considered a main driver of the initial contagion.

Keywords: COVID-19; Public transport; Commuting; Quantile regression; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H41 I18 J61 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885922000178
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:retrec:v:95:y:2022:i:c:s0739885922000178

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_2&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2022.101194

Access Statistics for this article

Research in Transportation Economics is currently edited by M. Dresner

More articles in Research in Transportation Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().