Volatility spillovers between oil and coal prices and its implications for energy portfolio management in China

Yanfeng Guo and Huanyu Zhao

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024, vol. 89, issue PB, 446-457

Abstract: In the structure of energy consumption of China, coal and oil rank the top and the second place. It is obviously important to better understand the dynamics of the price volatility between crude oil and coal in China, and then to build a reasonable energy portfolio. As the listing of China's crude oil futures offers a new sample to study the volatility contagion of oil and coal prices, by using daily data from 2nd May 2018 to January 23, 2020, four different multivariate GARCH models are compared and contrasted in this paper. Then, based on the results of the four MGARCHs, we investigate the oil-coal portfolios' optimal weights and hedge ratios. The results indicate that, first, a long-run co-integration relationship exists in China's crude oil and coal. Second, in short run, futures price of crude oil leads that of coal, the volatility spillover effect of crude oil on coal is stronger than that of coal on crude oil. Third, the DCC-GARCH model fits best for data. Last, weights of optimal portfolio and ratios of hedge show that the crude oil is a tool to make the risk of portfolio minimal in energy markets. These results are expected to have implications for energy producers, users and trading enterprises to inform their decision-making.

Keywords: China's crude oil; Coal; MGARCH; Volatility spillovers; Diversification and hedging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 G11 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:89:y:2024:i:pb:p:446-457

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.10.004

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