Knowledge production and world population dynamics

Boris M. Dolgonosov

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 103, issue C, 127-141

Abstract: Three laws of knowledge production explaining the empirically observed hyperbolic growth of world population are formulated. Knowledge and demographic dynamics are developed on the basis of the least action principle to describe deviations from the hyperbolic growth. The efficiency of knowledge production defined as the share of technological knowledge in total knowledge production is introduced. It is proven that a monotonic population growth with reaching a plateau is possible only when efficiency is 1. At a lower efficiency, population reaches a maximum and then declines. The estimated efficiency is currently not more than 0.1. The calculations show that if efficiency remains constant, population will peak at 9 billion in the mid-21st century and then decline to 5 billion or lower over several centuries. To keep population at a level of not less than 90% of maximum, it is necessary to raise efficiency of up to 0.31.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Dynamic systems; Growth theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:103:y:2016:i:c:p:127-141

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.10.023

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