The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market

Christoph Hansen, Tugrul Daim, Horst Ernst and Cornelius Herstatt

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 110, issue C, 196-212

Abstract: This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.

Keywords: Technology roadmap; Scenarios; Rail automation; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:196-212

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017

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