Development trajectory and research themes of foresight

Louis Y.Y. Lu, Chih-Hung Hsieh and John S. Liu

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 112, issue C, 347-356

Abstract: This study integrates the edge-betweenness clustering technique and key-route main path analysis to analyse the ‘broad foresight’ literature. We retrieve the relevant papers from the Thomson Reuters Web of Science databases and construct the citation network among them. The edge-betweenness clustering identifies six research groups in the ‘broad foresight’ literature. Three major research groups and their major research themes are ‘technology foresight’, ‘futures studies’, and ‘technology forecasting’. The other three are ‘scenario analysis’, ‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)’, and ‘technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA)’. We apply main path analysis to explore the overall development trajectory and the linkage among different research groups. We believe that the results are valuable for those who are interested in comprehending the overall development picture of ‘broad foresight’. The approach used herein is also applicable to other fields.

Keywords: Foresight; Forecasting; Futures studies; Development trajectory; Research themes; Citation network analysis; Main path analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:347-356

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.040

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