Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19

Alain Debecker and Theodore Modis

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 163, issue C

Abstract: A negative correlation between the final ceiling of the logistic curve and its slope, established long time ago via a simulation study, motivated this closer look at flattening the curve of COVID-19. The diffusion of the virus is analyzed with S-shaped logistic-curve fits on the 25 countries most affected in which the curve was more than 95% completed at the time of the writing (mid-May 2020.) A negative correlation observed between the final number of infections and the slope of the logistic curve corroborates the result obtained long time ago via an extensive simulation study. There is both theoretical arguments and experimental evidence for the existence of such correlations. The flattening of the curve results in a retardation of the curve's midpoint, which entails an increase in the final number of infections. It is possible that more lives are lost at the end by this process. Our analysis also permits evaluation of the various governments’ interventions in terms of rapidity of response, efficiency of the actions taken (the amount of flattening achieved), and the number of days by which the curve was delayed. Not surprisingly, early decisive response—such as countrywide lockdown—proves to be the optimum strategy among the countries studied.

Keywords: Logistic growth; S-curve; Covid-19; Coronavirus; Flattening the curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520312580

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120432

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