 Climate policy uncertainty and the U.S. economic cycleJinyu Yang, Dayong Dong and Chao Liang Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 202, issue C Abstract: Given the concerns arising from climate change, countries, regions, and organizations worldwide have developed and implemented policy frameworks and measures aimed at addressing the challenges posed by climate change. However, the implementation pathways of these policies may entail significant uncertainties, presenting challenges to economic development. This study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to examine the influence of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on the U.S. economic cycle. The economic cycle variables are extracted from four popular economic indicators based on the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. The results show that CPU changes effectively impact economic cycle, and a positive CPU shock can trigger negative reactions in the economy (recession) in the subsequent period. Moreover, we find that CPU changes are a Granger cause of the economic cycle and have good prediction classification performance for economic expansions and recessions. We provide new insights into the relationship between CPU and the economic cycle for policymakers. Keywords: Climate policy uncertainty; Economic cycle; Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter; VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:202:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524001409 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123344 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
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