A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles

Johannes Warth, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 4, 566-583

Abstract: In this paper, we present a novel approach for generating scenarios in multi-stakeholder environments. In order to address one of the most imperative environmental and societal challenges related to mobility, we explore the future of electric drive vehicles (EDVs). Since many different stakeholders are involved in the socio-technological transition from internal combustion engines (ICEs) to EDVs, we present a dissent-based scenario development process, which uses the Delphi technique for data generation. In total, 140 experts from 15 stakeholder groups participated in this German-based survey and assessed controversial projections for 2030. Results reveal a considerably high degree of dissent. In order to cope with different viewpoints in the scenario development process, we utilize a novel 5-step dissent analysis for further insights into possible futures. Thus, we account for potential differences among stakeholder groups (step 1), the effect of a desirability bias (step 2), as well as the impact of outliers (step 3) and bipolarity (step 4) in the survey results. Finally, we identify different clusters of experts through latent class analysis (step 5). Based on the results of the dissent analysis, seven partially conflicting multi-stakeholder scenarios for the future of EDVs in 2030 are developed.

Keywords: Scenarios; Delphi; Multi-stakeholder; Dissent; Electric drive vehicles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:566-583

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.005

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