Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

Martino Tran, David Banister, Justin D.K. Bishop and Malcolm D. McCulloch

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 5, 865-875

Abstract: We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies.

Keywords: Early adopters; Innovation diffusion; Alternative fuel vehicles; Scenarios; Consumer behaviour (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:5:p:865-875

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.009

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