Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production

Renato Guseo, Cinzia Mortarino and Md Abud Darda

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, vol. 90, issue PB, 366-378

Abstract: Similar to other non-renewable resources, different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. They provide an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex ante assessments of future scenarios over time. The present study offers a framework for systematizing the historical production of conventional Algerian natural gas contrasting homogeneity versus latent heterogeneity hypotheses of the agents involved in extraction dynamics. New models are proposed, and their comparative performances are discussed. In particular, diffusion models with latent heterogeneity of the agents perform better. Our results show a decreasing trend in conventional Algerian natural gas production, which is in agreement with recent published results. Some differences refer to lower URR estimates.

Keywords: Diffusion models; Heterogeneous agents; Natural gas production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514001681
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pb:p:366-378

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.05.011

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().